Greenblatt Revela: Como Realmente Funciona o Mercado

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So even Warren Buffett says the vast majority of 
people should index. And I agree with him. So,  

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are there any questions, or do I have any time?

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Then again, you know, Warren Buffett doesn’t 
index, and neither do I. So I thought I’d tell  

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you why. And then maybe you’ll have some more 
information to decide for yourself what makes  

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makes sense for you. And in a sense, 
it shouldn’t be that hard. I actually,  

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I had a friend who’s an orthopedic surgeon and 
is in charge of a group of orthopedic surgeons,  

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and he asked me to speak to them 
at a dinner about the stock market.

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And I said, okay, these are smart, educated 
guys. They can understand this stuff. And I  

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spoke for about 35 minutes explaining how 
the stock market worked and everything else.  

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And then I started getting questions 
along the lines of: oil went down $2  

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yesterday — what should I do? Or: market was 
up 2% yesterday — what do I do about that?

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So my interpretation to those questions 
was I had just crashed and burned. So,  

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last year, I was lucky enough to be 
asked to teach a ninth grade class,  

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a bunch of kids, mostly from Harlem. 
And I had just sort of crashed and  

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burned with the orthopedic surgeons, and 
I didn’t want to do that with the kids.

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And so I started to try to think 
of what could I do to explain the  

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stock market a little bit better. And 
so I walked into class the first day,  

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and I handed out a bunch of three-by-five 
cards, and I asked — I brought in this jar  

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of jelly beans right here — and I asked the 
students, you know, passed around the jar

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jelly beans, asked them to count the 
rows, do whatever they wanted to do,  

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and write down their best guess for 
how many jelly beans were in the  

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jar. I collected the three-by-five cards, 
and I went around the room one by one to  

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each one of the kids in the room. And I 
said, listen, you can keep your guess.

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You can change your guess. That’s up to 
you. And I went one by one around the room,  

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asked people how many, and wrote down the 
the various guesses. So it turned out the  

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guess — the average of the guesses 
for the three-by-five cards — was  

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1,771 jelly beans. There are 1,776 jelly 
beans in the jar, so that was pretty good.

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The guess when I went around the 
room — that was 850 jelly beans.  

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And I explained to them that the stock 
markets actually is second guessed,  

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okay? Because everyone knows what they just read 
in the paper, what the guy next to them said,  

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what they saw on the news, and are 
influenced by everything around them.

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And that was the second guess. And that’s 
the stock market — the cold, calculating  

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guess when they were counting rows and trying 
to figure out what was going on. That actually  

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was the better guess. That is not the stock 
market. But that’s where I see our opportunity.